The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration

摘要: A prominent agricultural adaptation to climate change consists in shifting crop mixes toward the poles or upward elevation. This paper examines extent which factors have shifted regional China and forecasts how future might under selected scenarios. Using a data set that provides planted area shares for each mainland Chinese province from 2001 2013, we employ fractional multinomial logit (FMLOGIT) model examine influence of on historical as well conditions. Results show temperature increases are projected raise incidence wheat tubers while reducing rice maize, is conventional food security crops. Moreover, cash crops such vegetables orchards fiber-producing will increase, whereas oil-bearing specialty decrease. first its kind impacts portfolio across Mainland China. The findings important implications foreseeing needed efforts maintain production face pointing out cases where may be desirable.