Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans

摘要: Populations of seasonal influenza virus experience strong annual bottlenecks that pose a considerable extinction risk. It has been suggested an source population located in tropical Southeast or East Asia seeds temperate epidemics. Here we investigate the dynamics and migration patterns A H3N2 by analysis samples obtained from 2003 to 2006 Australia, Europe, Japan, New York, Zealand, Asia, newly sequenced viruses Hong Kong. In contrast epidemics, relatively low levels relative genetic diversity no fluctuations characterized populations Bayesian phylogeographic using discrete temporal spatial characters reveal high rates viral between urban centers tested. Although migrated Kong persisted through time, this was dependent on input regions these did not maintain for We further show multiple lineages may seed each region function as potential population. therefore propose global persistence is result migrating metapopulation which different localities epidemics given year. Such complex confound control efforts contribute emergence spread antigenic variants drug-resistant viruses.