Frequency analysis for predicting 1% annual maximum water levels along Florida coast, US

摘要: In the Coastal Flood Insurance Study by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2005), 1% annual maximum coastal water levels are used in flood hazard mitigation and engineering design areas of USA. this study, a frequency analysis method has been developed to provide more accurate predictions for Florida coast waters. Using 82 94 years level data at Pensacola Fernandina, performances traditional methods, including advanced Generalized Extreme Value distribution method, have evaluated. Comparison with observations 83 95 return periods indicate that methods unable satisfactory account hurricane-induced extreme levels. Based on characteristics Fernandina stations, new probability study. indicates presented study significantly improves accuracy For station, match well general trend observations. With correlation coefficient 0·98, error observed 3·11 m (National Geodetic Vertical Datum) period is 0·92%. prediction 5·5%, value 0·98. The also reasonably compared costly Monte Carlo simulation method. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.