Framework for estimation of the direct rebound effect for residential photovoltaic systems

摘要: Abstract Over the past two decades market for residential rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems has grown substantially due mainly to declining costs—a trend that is expected continue. One drawback of PV system diffusion potential a rebound effect, well-known economic response through which energy savings are partially offset by increased demand resulting from lower costs. Our work differs existing literature, however, because effect associated with adoption not an improvement in efficiency, but availability zero-marginal cost alternative grid electricity. This paper develops novel method estimating based on and geographic information modeling. The illustrated numerical example, using neighborhood-level data Fulton County, Georgia, USA. We discuss possible applications our proposed method, include (i) enhancing predictive capability conventional power managers balancing forecasted dispatchable supply, (ii) aiding policy makers designing policies mitigate solar adoption.