Fluvial fluxes from the Magdalena River into Cartagena Bay, Caribbean Colombia: Trends, future scenarios, and connections with upstream human impacts

摘要: Abstract Fluxes of continental runoff and sediments as well downstream deposition eroded soils have severely altered the structure function fluvial deltaic-estuarine ecosystems. The Magdalena River, main contributor fluxes into Caribbean Sea, delivers important amounts water Cartagena Bay, a major estuarine system in northern Colombia. Until now, trends bay, relationship between these tendencies inputs associated upstream changes catchment, not been studied. Here we explore interannual discharge sediment load flowing from River-Canal del Dique Bay during last three decades, forecast future scenarios discuss possible connections observed human intervention River basin. Significant upward annual mid-1980s, 1990s, post-2000 are Canal Bay. During decade, streamflow experienced increases 24% 33%, respectively, compared to pre-2000 year period. Meanwhile, witnessed 28% 48%, respectively. 26 y monitoring, has discharged ~ 177 Mt coastal zone, which 52 Mt was Currently, drains 6.5% transports 5.1% load. By 2020, flux zone will witness increments ~ 164% 260%, Consequently, high 8.2 Mt y − 1 or 317%. Further analyses series for 21 tributary systems 2005–2010 period reveal that six tributaries, representing 55% analyzed basin area, increasing load, raising river's by 44 Mt y . Overall, decades close agreement with induced erosion. decade even stronger Our results emphasize importance catchment-coast linkage order predict systems.