General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models

作者: Colin Camerer

DOI: 10.1016/0030-5073(81)90031-3

关键词:

摘要: Linear models which fit regression equations to clinical judgments. then use the fitted parts of judgments as "bootstrapped" judgments, have outperformed clinical in many tasks. Empirically, the phenomenon has been pervasive, but general conditions for success bootstrapping have never explicitly linked cross-study data. This link, combined with psychologically plausible evidence about relationships between judgmental variables, shows that will improve slightly under almost any realistic task conditions. result allows one apply bootstrapping blindly cases where criterion information is missing or vague (precisely the are useful), and be confident predictions are being improved. A simple comparison models with equal weighting also made, relative success those two not specified.

参考文章(26)
Detlof V Winterfeldt, Ward Edwards, MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY LAB, Flat Maxima in Linear Optimization Models ,(1973)
Lawrence C. Grebstein, Relative accuracy of actuarial prediction, experienced clinicians, and graduate students in a clinical judgment task. Journal of Consulting Psychology. ,vol. 27, pp. 127- 132 ,(1963) , 10.1037/H0040580
Nancy Wiggins, Eileen S. Kolen, Man versus model of man revisited: The forecasting of graduate school success. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. ,vol. 19, pp. 100- 106 ,(1971) , 10.1037/H0031147
Hillel J. Einhorn, Expert measurement and mechanical combination Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. ,vol. 7, pp. 86- 106 ,(1972) , 10.1016/0030-5073(72)90009-8
Ronald J. Ebert, Thomas E. Kruse, Bootstrapping the security analyst. Journal of Applied Psychology. ,vol. 63, pp. 110- 119 ,(1978) , 10.1037/0021-9010.63.1.110
Berndt Brehmer, Note on clinical judgment and the formal characteristics of clinical tasks. Psychological Bulletin. ,vol. 83, pp. 778- 782 ,(1976) , 10.1037/0033-2909.83.5.778
Howard Wainer, Estimating Coefficients in Linear Models: It Don't Make No Nevermind Psychological Bulletin. ,vol. 83, pp. 213- 217 ,(1976) , 10.1037/0033-2909.83.2.213
Ronald J. Ebert, Environmental Structure and Programmed Decision Effectiveness Management Science. ,vol. 19, pp. 435- 445 ,(1972) , 10.1287/MNSC.19.4.435