Reliability-cost trade-offs for electricity industry planning with high variable renewable energy penetrations in emerging economies: A case study of Indonesia’s Java-Bali grid

摘要: Abstract Electricity industries in emerging economies face particular challenges delivering affordable, environmentally sustainable, and secure power given growing demand limited financial resources. While supply reliability is often poor emission reductions lower priority, solar wind are now amongst our cheapest options but highly variable. Our study seeks to demonstrate the potential value of trading-off standards against higher renewables industry costs future generation planning. We use an open-source, evolutionary programming-based, capacity expansion planning tool, NEMO, solve least cost mixes for Indonesia’s Java-Bali grid 2030. explicitly test impacts targets 0.005%–5% unserved energy (USE), modelled as both a hard optimization constraint penalty price on USE function. results highlight that can increase penetrations, reducing CO2 emissions while costs. Both methods incorporating delivered similar outcomes pricing had some advantages over setting. consumers requires careful consideration, highlights implications arguably unrealistic economies.