A demonstration of the effect of seasonal migration on fertility

摘要: Fertility estimates were calculated using own children data from the Mexican migrant town of Guadalupe, Michoacan. In this town, 75 percent families have a member working in United States, and wives are often regularly separated their husbands. Simulations by Menken (1979) Bongaarts Potter suggest that fertility among these women should be depressed. Our results confirmed hypothesis, showing seasonal absence husbands disrupted both level timing fertility. However, effect was greater for legal than illegal migrants, pattern stemmed social factors as well physical separation. A logistic regression analysis showed reductions birth probabilities longer couple is separated, range expected prior simulations.