THE MAYFIELD METHOD OF ESTIMATING NESTING SUCCESS: A MODEL, ESTIMATORS AND SIMULATION RESULTS

摘要: Mayfield (1960, 1961, 1975) proposed a method of estimating nesting success which removes potential sources bias often associated with other estimates this parameter. Despite the intuitive appeal Mayfield's and general recognition that it is appropriate (e.g., Miller Johnson 1978, Custer Pitelka 1977, 1979), still not widely used. In paper we present probabilistic model for experimental situation considered by 1975). We then obtain maximum likelihood estimators based on results Monte Carlo simulations designed to evaluate estimators. Sample size considerations are also discussed. concept "nest days." The he employs assumes following: (a) complete period success, will call period, (for example, incubation eggs) same number days, say J all nests; (b) there constant unknown probability, p (0 < 1), over nest observed day j survive + 1; probability succeeding from I full term pJ; (c) fixed