The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change

摘要: Abstract The possible disruption of climate change (CC) on the ecological, economic and social segments human interest has made this phenomenon a major issue over last couple decades. Mountains are fragile ecosystems, projected to endure higher impact from increased warming. This study presents modelled CC projections with respect suitability for growth nine near-treeline plant species Himalayas Tibetan Plateau through niche modelling technique using CLIMEX estimates their potential future distribution extent greening in region. Two global models, CSIRO-MK 3.0 (CS) MIROCH-H (MR) were used under IPCC A1B A2 emission scenarios year 2050 2100. results indicate that climatic expands towards elevations into areas currently unsuitable while suitable many regions become climatically future. total area at current time is around 1.09 million km2, an additional 0.68 0.35 million km2 becoming by 2100 respectively. High elevation belts, especially those lying above 3500 m, will see more Cold stress main factor limiting its decrease affect overall expansion Impacts nature conservation water food security could be expected such shift