Forecasted climate and land use changes, and protected areas: the contrasting case of spiders

摘要: Aim To assess the exposure of 10 spider species to two drivers global change (climate and land use), suitability current network protected areas with respect this exposure, implications for a national conservation programme. Location The western Palearctic France. Methods We predicted future potential distributions using distribution models (SDMs). We explicitly quantified uncertainties in estimated environmental discounted uncertainty. analysed versus unprotected occurrence cells. Results In first forecast multiple face changes, we showed that changes could be confidently have serious impacts on all studied species, significant range contractions expansions within relatively short time-scale (up 2050). seven will conserve at least one cell suitable conditions future. However, there is considerable room improvement. Main conclusions This study illustrated how SDMs applied programme an understudied taxon such as spiders, spite their predictions. In addition, raised here compel us emphasize pressing need improve our knowledge taxa spiders. advocate necessity increasing monitoring schemes, experiments forecasts effects larger more diversified than currently case literature.