Work plan for data exchange between the integrated assessment and climate modeling community in support of phase-0 of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (representative community pathways)

摘要: 9 During its 26th meeting in Bangkok in May 2007, the IPCC requested the preparation of a new set of 10 scenarios to facilitate future assessment of climate change. This new set (that is intended to replace and 11 extend the scenarios used in earlier IPCC assessments) should be compatible with the full range of 12 stabilization, mitigation and baseline emission scenarios available in the current scientific literature. The 13 IPCC also decided that, in part because of the growing number of scenarios developed within the 14 research community, and the research communities organizational structure, the research community 15 itself would undertake development of scenarios for assessment in a possible AR5, while the IPCC’s 16 role would be that of catalyzing and assessing such work. 17 18The research community has subsequently outlined three phases of scenario development: a preparatory 19 phase and two main phases of scenario development—a parallel product development phase and an 20 integration, dissemination, and application phase. In the preparatory phase, four integrated assessment 21 (IA) concentration and emissions scenarios will be chosen from the existing literature and provided to 22 climate modelers. These scenarios are referred to as “representative concentration pathways”(RCPs). 23 These scenarios will be used to produce a new set of climate model simulations that will subsequently 24 used for mitigation, impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability analysis. The primary goal of the RCPs is to 25 provide, in a timely manner, the most up to date scenarios possible to be used to produce these new 26 climate model …