An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios

摘要: Scenarios of greenhouse emissions play an important role in the analysis of potential climate change. From a scientific standpoint, they provide a departure point for analyzing the potential occurrence and impacts of climate change; from a policy perspective they provide information about the consequences of action or inaction to reduce gas emissions. This report presents an evaluation of the six IS92 Scenarios. Other published scenarios are also taken into account, but only by way of comparison with the IS92 Scenarios. It is emphasized that this evaluation deals mostly with non-intervention scenarios, that is, scenarios that do not assume any climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (although they may assume emission controls for other environmental reasons). This applies to five of the six IS92 scenarios that we call non-intervention scenarios. Policy scenarios are only briefly discussed in the evaluation. Because of limited time available for this evaluation, it focuses exclusively on CO2, CH4, N2O, and S emission scenarios from energy and land-use activities. Other sources of greenhouse gases and sinks are not discussed. Despite the somewhat limited focus of the evaluation, it is believed that a wider scope would not have led to significantly different conclusions.