Optimal management decisions are robust to unknown dynamics in an amphibian metapopulation plagued by disease

摘要: Identifying conservation actions to recover threatened species can be challenging due to many ecological uncertainties. For example, major threats to a species' conservation are commonly known or suspected, but the specific impacts on population or metapopulation dynamics can be uncertain. This is frequently the case with emerging infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis, a global driver of amphibian population declines caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans. While these diseases are known to cause amphibian declines and extirpations, the mechanisms of their landscape‐scale spread are still largely unknown. Such uncertainty can lead to inaction which may jeopardize timely recovery of a species. Decision analysis is a pragmatic approach to making transparent and defensible decisions while dealing with uncertainties. We …