Wildlife Conservation and Climate Change in Canada: Exploring Implications of Projected Species Range Shifts

摘要: Anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter ecological conditions in the coming decades, and with that, biodiversity. This report presents an exploratory analysis to provide a Canadian perspective on conservation implications of potential range shifts of wildlife species in response to projected changes in climate. It aims to inform conservation advisors, planners and managers of the extent, magnitude and timing of potential changes (relative to current) over the21 st Century in the early (2011-2040 or the 2020s), mid (2041-2070 or the 2050s) and late (2071-2100 or the 2080s) time period. The analysis was based on a dataset produced using a bioclimatic modeling approach to simulate shifts in the distributions of 543 species of terrestrial vertebrates (132 mammals, 39 amphibians, 372 birds) that currently occur or are projected to expand into Canada under a mid to high range emissions scenario (IPCC Emissions Scenario A2) and assuming species can or cannot disperse for each 30-year time period.