Are models suitable for determining ILUC factors

摘要: The present sustainability criteria of the European Union for biofuels include minimum values for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These reductions are based on a greenhouse gas balance which includes all the steps in the production chain for biofuels. Indirect emissions, however, are not included. One of the outcomes of the political debate surrounding the indirect impact of biofuels is an exploration of the possibility of using emission factors in greenhouse gas balances to take into account the emissions caused by indirect land-use change (an ILUC factor). Analysis using models is one way to derive such factors.To derive the ILUC factor (or factors) the model to be used needs to take into account the interaction between a new biofuel production chain and the dynamic global system. An ILUC factor is a characteristic of this interaction itself and not of the biofuel, and it varies in time. Other essential aspects to …