摘要: International commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions, made under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) exclude emissions from international transport. However, worldwide international aviation is one of the most rapidly growing sources of CO2 emissions, showing an increase of 42% between1990 and 20051. In addition, the effect of non-CO2 aviation emissions on climate is complex, with high-altitude NOx emissions inducing tropospheric ozone formation and reducing the atmospheric lifetime of methane4-8, while particles and water vapour lead to the formation of linear contrails and cirrus clouds under certain conditions19. Based on current knowledge2, 3, 5, 20, our analysis suggests that from1940 to 2005 worldwide aviation produced a rise in global mean temperatures of0.028 oC (68% range 0.023-0.050). This represents 4.7%(4.0-5.2%) of the total anthropogenic change. The total influence of aviation on climate is, therefore, expected to be considerably greater than is suggested solely on the basis of its share of current anthropogenic fossil CO2 emissions. The present contribution of worldwide aviation to climate change is comparable to that of a major economy, such as the
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