Impact of multi-annual renewable energy variability on the optimal sizing of off-grid systems

摘要: It remains a significant technical and economic challenge to fully power large-scale grids with intermittent renewable energy (RE). Meanwhile, due to the rapid decrease in the cost of RE power generation technologies in recent years, the number of real-world implementations and studies dedicated to the optimal capacity sizing of renewable off-grid systems has increased. However, a common approach in the literature is to rely on typical single-year meteorological and demand data. A negative effect of this assumption is that it does not consider the RE inter-annual variability, which might cause blackouts or oversizing the system and large curtailments. This study employs 43 years of hourly solar, wind, and demand data, coupled with different microgrid configurations, to evaluate the impact of diverse simulation periods on the total system cost, optimal RE mix, and system reliability. Our findings indicate that …