Not to be cited without prior reference to the author

摘要: Numerous studies have proposed methodology to model fishermen’s behaviour in order to predict the outcomes of the decision-making process on board a fishing vessel. Both short-and long-term processes (eg investment) impact on fleet dynamics. The structure of models that have been proposed depends on the nature of the fishery (state variables) and the control variables (technical restrictions, quotas, effort control and/or closed areas). For example, within the context of multi-stock, multi-fleet fisheries (mixed fisheries), a skipper will allocate effort (as an input to the production process) in order to harvest a range of species whereas the regulations within a single-species TAC system results in discarding that is not typically included in the assessment models for the all species. We briefly review alternative models of discarding. In addition, spatial complexity is normally excluded in models of behaviour. Two alternative spatial analyses are presented for the modelling of location choice (a simplified simulation model of individual vessels and a model based on Random Utility Model methodology). The results from the RUM which is applied to the English beam trawl fleet in 2000, indicate that the number of trips, average trip length and average effort in each ICES rectangle are significant variables affecting location choice, in addition to a value weighted index of the catch rate for the previous year (1999). The results validate the assumption (in the simulation model of fishing effort) that fishermen will make decisions as to their spatial location on expected catch rates (that are based on past activities). The simulation model is used to predict the …