Learning about risk in a new environment

摘要: We study how individuals learn about the crime risk in the neighborhood they live in. Specifically, we examine whether and how perceptions of crime risk change with time since move to a new neighborhood. Based on four successive waves of a large annual crime survey matched with administrative records on places of residence, we find large and statistically significant differences in how movers perceive crime risk according to time since move. The longer people live in the neighborhood, the higher their perceived prevalence of crime. Strikingly, the upwards adjustment in risk perceptions after the move is independent from the crime risk in the previous place of residence. One explanation for our findings is that judgment of the crime risk is primarily based on the ease in which experiences with crime in the new place of residence can be brought to mind. This stock of crime-related experiences in the new locality increases over time, resulting in a progressively greater perceived risk of crime.