Physically-based modelling of co-seismic landslide, debris flow and flood cascade

摘要: The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake lead to various complex multi-hazard chains that included seismically-triggered landslide initiation, landslide run-out, river damming, dam breaching and flooding. The modelling of the interactions between such hazardous processes is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainty. Here we present an event-based physically-based model that is able to simulate multi-hazard land surface process chains within a single unified simulation. The final model is used to simulate a multi-hazard chain event in the Hongchun watershed, where co-seismic landslides led to a landslide dam and, two years later, a debris flow that breached the landslide dam. While most aspects of the multi-hazard chain are well predicted, the correct prediction of slope failures remains the biggest challenge. Although the results should be treated carefully, the development of such a model provides a significant progress in the applicability of multi-hazard chain simulations.