Copula-based Statistical Modelling of Compound Flooding and the Effect of Climate Variability: A Case Study in the Netherlands

摘要: The complex interplay between (not necessarily extreme) precipitation and storm surge can drive extreme flooding events in coastal areas, threatening lives, assets, and the environment. In this study, we examine the suitability of copula-based models to replicate the physical interaction between surge and precipitation resulting in extreme inland water level at a gauge near Lauwersmeer (the Netherlands) observed in van den Hurk et al.(2015). A novel and challenging aspect lies in the high degree of human management that strongly affects the dynamics of the hydrological system, which needs to be translated into a realistic" impact function" that successfully describes the relationship between the impact (inland water level) and driving variables. We produce an impact-based multivariate statistical framework optimally designed to reproduce inland water level extremes. Upon event sampling, an impact function …