Exploring the impact of climate change for biological climate variables using observations and multi-model initial condition large ensembles

摘要: Species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations. However, there is significant variability in observed species range shifts and differences in exposure to climate change may explain some of the variability amongst species. But this requires identifying regions that have experienced detectable changes in those aspects of the climate system that species are sensitive to. To better understand species exposure to climate change, we estimate the time of emergence of climate change for 19 biologically relevant climate variables using observations and initial condition large ensembles from five different climate models. The time of emergence (ToE) is calculated using Signal/Noise (S/N) thresholds. The S/N threshold applied in this study is>= 2, but this …