1. HIV transmission model 1. Overview of the HIV transmission model

摘要: A mathematical model of the HIV transmission dynamics among men who have sex with men (MSM) aged 15-64 in the United Kingdom was developed based on a system of differential equations. We included in the model a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities to simulate the epidemic over the 20-year time course from 2001 to 2020. The simulations were started from the beginning of 2000 to allow the model to become more stable before conducting further analyses from 2001 onwards. Our model was parameterised based on available information from multiple sources including behavioural surveys, surveillance systems, and the literature. We also fitted the model to the data and external estimates using the Monte-Carlo filtering method [1]. The model was used to estimate the current epidemic situation in various aspects and predict how it would evolve in the near future. The detailed descriptions of the model are shown in this appendix.