What Gets Built on Sites That Cities" Make Available" for Housing?

摘要: California’s housing planning system seeks to accommodate regionally needed housing and advance fair housing principles. The system has become increasingly oriented towards getting results, and recent reforms have generated substantially larger targets for housing production. As cities across the state begin updating their local housing plans, attention is turning to whether plans will lead to needed housing development.In this report, we analyze local plans and housing development rates in nearly 100 cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. We assess production on sites presented by cities to the state government as apt for housing, as well as elsewhere in the city. Our analysis relies on datasets of housing-plan site inventories from 2014-2015 (the start of the last planning period), and housing permits between 2015 and 2019. After matching the two datasets, we estimate (1) the share of sites listed in a city’s housing plan that will be built out during the planning period,(2) the share of a city’s housing development that happened on those sites, and (3) the share of a city’s ostensible capacity for housing development that the city is on track to realize. We use the observed pattern of development from 2015-2019 to make projections for the full eight-year planning period.