The world gas market in 2030-Calculation of development scenarios using the World Gas Model

摘要: In this paper we provide a discussion of potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we specify a “base case” which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze three structural scenarios, representing i) tightly constrained reserves, ii) sharply constrained production and export activities in the Arab Gulf, and iii) the impact of CO2-constraints and the emergence of a competing environmental friendly “backstop technology”. Another set of scenarios focuses on regional trends: we simulate iv) the full halt of Russian exports to Western Europe, v) heavily increasing demand for natural gas in China and India; and finally vi) constraints on infrastructure …