Causal attribution of agricultural expansion in a small island system using approximate Bayesian computation

摘要: The extent and arrangement of land cover types on our planet directly affects biodiversity, carbon storage, water quality, and many other critical social and ecological conditions at virtually all scales. Given the fundamental importance of land cover, a key mandate for land system scientists is to describe the mechanisms by which pertinent cover types spread and shrink. Identifying causal drivers of change is challenging however, because land systems, such as small-scale agricultural communities, do not lend themselves well to controlled experimentation for logistical and ethical reasons. Even natural experiments in these systems can produce only limited causal inference as they often contain unobserved confounding drivers of land cover change and complex feedbacks between drivers and outcomes. Land system scientists commonly grapple with this complexity by using computer simulations to explicitly …