Climatic impact of Norwegian gas power production; Klimavirkninger av norsk gasskraftproduksjon

摘要: This article discusses model calculations of the impact of a Norwegian gas power plant on the total carbon dioxide emission in Western Europe. The authors have set up a model that is based on the assumption that the European markets for electricity and gas be liberalized as defined in various EU directives. The model calculates all energy prices and the energy produced and consumed in Western Europe within a time horizon where all the capacities of the energy sector are given. If gas power plants are built in Norway after such liberalization, the model predicts a reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions in Western Europe even if the gas power plant increases the local emission in Norway. This is primarily because of the phasing-out of the coal-fired power plants in other countries. Alternative calculations using different assumptions about taxes, transportation capacity, minimum run-off years in Norway give the same type of results. Thus, the principal result about the climatically beneficial effect of a Norwegian gas power plant is robust within the model. However, alternative assumptions about the extent of the liberalization and the time horizon may lead to other conclusions. In any case, the impact of a Norwegian gas power plant (6 TWh) is so small on the European scale as to be rather symbolic.