Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the Middle East

摘要: Production of electricity from solar energy is gaining a huge significance. The integration of all solar energy power to the electricity grid challenges new horizons. Mainly, the prediction of short term electricity generation to optimize its management, avoid situations of load reduction and anticipate supplying problems.This paper presents a methodology to forecast hourly global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) using global forecast system (GFS) model from NOAA and MACC model form ECMWF. Three clear sky models are tested to increase temporal resolution of GFS model from 3 hours to 1 hour. Forecasting horizon of the predictions is 6 days. The model has been validated using a ground radiometric station in Qatar with data from 2014 to 2015. The errors of the best model tested are 19% in terms of relative RMSD and-1.68% in terms of relative bias for GHI. In the case of DNI, relative RMSD is 48.43% and relative bias is-3.40%.