Grid-parity analysis for EU and US regions and market segments-Dynamics of grid-parity and dependence on solar irradiance, local electricity prices and PV progress ratio

摘要: Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for all member states of the European Union and the United States of America, respectively. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. In the EU and the US, first grid-parity events will occur in late 2009 or early 2010 in Italy and Hawaii, respectively. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the EU and the US, reaching an addressable market of about 90% and 65% of total electricity market, respectively. In parallel to grid-parity events, next milestones for PV industry will be diesel-parity and natural gas-parity. Reaching grid-parity will require new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits. PV technology is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.