Energy demand estimation using a pre-processing macro-economic modelling tool for 21st century transition analyses

摘要: Energy systems research requires a variety of demand scenarios for possible futures. Comprehensive energy demand modelling is often made with a simplified approach or based on assumptions scattered among various sources, if it is published at all. There is no detailed discussion of the impact of various macro-economic scenarios on different levels of energy demand available. This study uses LUT-DEMAND, a novel modelling tool for energy demand, to create comprehensive demand input data in high spatial resolution globally and high temporal resolution until 2100. A multi-step approach is applied to estimate the energy demand. A variety of economic and demographic scenarios are explored, including the shared socio-economic pathways. The total primary energy demand is estimated for possible limitations caused by the overall energy demand and chosen technologies. The results for this century's …