Preliminary results of the back-analysis of 24 rock avalanche case histories

摘要: Rock avalanches are extremely rapid, flow-like landslides that can travel unexpectedly long distances. The mechanisms that result in the excessive travel distance of these landslides are still debated and, as a result, risk analysis of rock avalanches is not routine. One promising tool that can be used to forecast rock avalanche motion is the equivalent fluid runout model Dan3D-Flex. Dan3D-Flex is semi-empirical, as the parameters that govern simulations can only be constrained through back-analysis. This work details preliminary results of the back-analysis of 24 rock avalanche case histories. Trends in the derived parameters are used to infer information about rock avalanche movement mechanisms. It was found that the character of the path material is a plausible explanation for much of the variance associated with rock avalanche mobility. Cases that overran saturated substrate were found to have higher mobility than those that overran bedrock. These results have significant implications for researchers and practitioners tasked with forecasting rock avalanche motion.