Integrating dynamic material flow analysis and computable general equilibrium models for both mass and monetary balances in prospective modeling: a case for the Chinese building sector

摘要: Integrated Assessment Models based on Computable General Equilibrium (IAM/CGE) and dynamic Material Flow Analysis (dynamic MFA) are two most widely used prospective model families to assess large-scale and long-term socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) and inform sustainable SEM transition. The latter approach could complement the former by a more explicit understanding of service provision, in-use stocks, and material cycles in a mass balanced framework. In this paper, we demonstrated this by integrating the dynamic MFA and CGE model approaches for the Chinese building sector from 2012 to 2030. Our results revealed the impacts of building stock dynamics on sectoral and economy-wide CO2 emissions: lower service saturation levels and later saturation time of building stock development could free up investment on buildings and accumulatively save up to 25.4 Gt in embodied CO2 emissions of …