Deep decarbonisation towards 1.5° C-2° C stabilisation

摘要: Limiting global mean warming to well below 2°C or even 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels requires a major transformation of the energy system. The ADVANCE project has analysed this mitigation challenge in detail, from the implications of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions INDCs) to decarbonisation bottlenecks in energy end-use sectors, taking into account both technological as well as behavioural emission reduction measures. Our key fndings are: The implementation of the Paris Agreement initiates a low-carbon transition for major emitting countries but an intensifcation of global effort is still required in order to limit global warming well below 2°C. In 2030, the implementation of the INDCs is expected to reduce GHG emissions by 10% of pre-Paris Reference emission levels. However, the global emissions gap relative to cost-optimal reduction pathways remains at 14 [4-25]1 GtCO2eq for the 2°C target and 25 [13-30] GtCO2eq for the 1.5°C target. The decarbonisation of the power sector accounts for more than half the CO2 reductions achieved by the INDCs in 2030. It also holds the greatest potential for further near-term eductions which would put the world on track for 1.5-2°C stabilisation. In 2030, the INDCs are expected to generate an increase in the share of zero carbon power supply by 5% [1-12%] relative to pre-existing trends, achieving a total share of 48% [40-66%]. Optimal 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios feature 57% [50-90%] and 73% [57-93%] zero carbon power supply respectively. In contrast, the INDCs have little effect on near-term emissions from non-electric end-use, even though progress in abating emissions …