The geometry of active shortening in the northwest Himalayas and the implications for seismic hazard

摘要: Large thrust faults accommodate the convergence between India and Tibet along the southern margin of the Himalaya and have a history of producing great earthquakes that cause widespread damage. Along most parts of the Himalaya, there is geomorphological evidence that these thrusts can rupture to the surface in Mw >8 earthquakes. However, in the Himalayan state of Jammu & Kashmir (NW India), the thrust faults are blind and large-scale folding is the only expression of active deformation at the surface, making it difficult to assess the seismic hazard in this region. In this paper, we use field, satellite, and seismological observations to determine the fault geometry in Jammu & Kashmir. We then estimate the ground motions from potential earthquakes in the region using models of the seismic wavefield that would be generated if the thrust fault beneath Jammu & Kashmir were to rupture. We find that …