26 Revised emissions growth projections for China: why post-Kyoto climate policy must look east

摘要: Growth rates in energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in developing countries, particularly the People’s Republic of China, have increased rapidly in recent years. Emissions from the original signatories to the Kyoto Protocol (known as “Annex B countries”)—essentially the developed world and economies in transition—will almost certainly be surpassed by emissions from non-Annex B countries before 2010. Previous analyses projected that this crossing point would occur in 2020 or later (Weyant et al. 1999). The main source of unexpected emissions growth is China. According to the historical record provided by Marland et al.(2008), since 2000 the average annual growth rate in China’s emissions has exceeded 10 percent, compared to 2.8 percent in the 1990s. Globally, the average growth rate since 2000 has been 3.3 percent, compared to 1.1 percent in the 1990s. 1