Modelling economic interdependencies of international tourism demand: the global vector autoregressive approach

摘要: Tourism demand is one of the major areas of tourism economics research. The current research studies the interdependencies of international tourism demand across 24 major countries around the world. To this end, it proposes to develop a tourism demand model using an innovative approach, called the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. While existing tourism demand models are successful in measuring the causal effects of economic variables on tourism demand for a single origin-destination pair, they tend to miss the spillover effects onto other countries. In the era of globalisation, tourism destinations become interdependent on each other. Impacts of a distant event can be transmitted across borders and be felt globally. Hence, modelling international tourism demand requires one to go beyond a particular origin-destination pair, and take into account the interdependencies across multiple countries …