Prediction Model for Travel Time Variability for Copenhagen

摘要: Increasing traffic in the Copenhagen area escalates the level of congestion which leads to both higher average travel times and more unpredictable travel time (higher travel time variability). Even though travel time variability is recognised as a potentially significant contributor to the overall costs of travelling, there is no well-established practice to take it into account in project evaluations. Preliminary Danish calculations suggest that cost-benefit calculations underestimate travel cost by around 10-20% if travel time variability is not accounted for [4].In order to include travel time variability in cost-benefit analyses, an important first step is to predict the level of variability in different traffic scenarios. This study is aimed to develop a prediction model that can predict the level of travel time variability as a function of daily traffic flow patterns. The prediction model is developed as an “add on” for the Danish national traffic model (NTM). The work relies on existing data provided by the Danish Road Directorate.