Simulating plasticity as a framework for understanding habitat selection and its role in adaptive capacity and extinction risk through an expansion of CDMetaPOP

摘要: Adaptive capacity can present challenges for modelling as it encompasses multiple ecological and evolutionary processes such as natural selection, genetic drift, gene flow and phenotypic plasticity. Spatially explicit, individual‐based models provide an outlet for simulating these complex interacting eco‐evolutionary processes. We expanded the existing Cost‐Distance Meta‐POPulation (CDMetaPOP) framework with inducible plasticity modelled as a habitat selection behaviour, using temperature or habitat quality variables, with a genetically based selection threshold conditioned on past individual experience. To demonstrate expected results in the new module, we simulated hypothetical populations and then evaluated model performance in populations of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) across three watersheds where temperatures induce physiological stress in parts of the stream network. We …