Perspectivas de Demanda por combustíveis no Brasil

摘要: This paper aims at evaluating the perspectives for Brazilian fuel demand in the next years (2005-2015), pointing out key issues and analyzing its consequences based on an integrated energy planning approach. Two scenarios were considered in this study:“Business-As-Usual” and “Alternative”. The BAU scenario is a sort of keeping the usual trends, meaning that no major changes in the productive trajectories of country in addition to those already in place in the last years. On the other hand, the Alternative Scenario considers major changes in the productive trajectories of country, in such a way that the pace of the technological dynamic and of changes in economic structure towards higher value added and smaller energy intensity and environmental damage coefficients activities is made faster. Basic assumptions and additional hypothesis for both scenarios are presented in order to better understand the findings and to point out its implications for the Brazilian oil and gas sector. Yet, it should be pointed out that this paper derives from former studies performed for the Brazilian Oil and Gas Institute and for the Ministry of Mines and Energy.