Transforming the Norwegian dwelling stock to reach the 2 degrees celsius climate target: Combining material flow analysis and life cycle assessment techniques

摘要: Residential buildings account for about one‐third of the final energy demand in Norway. Many cost‐effective measures for reducing heat losses in buildings are known, and their implementation may make the building sector one of the largest contributors to climate change mitigation. To determine the sectoral emission reduction potential, we model a complete transformation of the dwelling stock by 2050 by applying both renovation and reconstruction with different energy standards. We propose a new dynamic stock model with an optimization routine to identify and prioritize buildings with the highest energy saving potential. We combine material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques to extend the sectoral boundary beyond direct household emissions. Despite an expected population growth of almost 50% between 2000 and 2050, sectoral carbon emissions in that period may drop …