Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle

摘要: Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminum industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, the penetration of these technologies is often delayed due to the long lifetimes of the industrial assets currently in use. Existing models and scenarios for the aluminum sector omit this inertia and therefore potentially overestimate the realistic mitigation potential. Here, we introduce a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model for the global primary (smelters) and secondary (melting furnaces) aluminum production capacities. In business-as-usual scenarios, we project emissions from smelters and melting furnaces to rise from 710 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2020 to 920–1400 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2050. Rapid implementation of inert anodes in smelters can reduce emissions by 14% by 2050. However, a limitation of emissions compatible with a 2 °C scenario requires combined action: (1) an …