Metropolitan Sources of Electoral Coalitions for Transportation Funding

摘要: This Report analyzes local variations in voting on transportation referenda at the state and county level over 1998-2006 in five metropolitan areas (Fresno, Los Angeles and San Francisco/San Jose in California, along with Seattle, Washington and Cincinnati, Ohio) to explore the sources of electoral support for transportation funding. The analysis employs several types of variation in voting patterns:(1) variations in support for successful ballot measures according to the ecological characteristics of communities,(2) comparison over time between results of successful and unsuccessful ballot measures in the same places, and (3) comparison of the ecological correlates of voting between successful and unsuccessful referenda in different counties or states. The results confirm several hypotheses about effective electoral coalition-building in support of ballot measures. With the partial exception of the Bay Area, successful transit funding referenda depend on suburban, affluent and nonminority communities. Successful highway funding referenda depend on support from urban, minority, relatively disadvantaged communities. Successful referenda for mixed modes of transportation depend on coalition building across different class, ethnic and spatial interests that often divide metropolitan areas. The results suggest that transportation ballot measures have added new dynamics of metropolitan coalition-building that may qualify as well as reinforce the role of middle class, suburban, white communities as influences on transportation policy.