Is survival of Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara) threatened? An evaluation based on predicted scenarios of its growth trend under future climate change

摘要: Global warming is likely to become one of the significant drivers of forest losses in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21st century. Better understanding of how forest ecosystem will respond to global warming requires a precise knowledge of site and species specific responses to climate change. We applied dendrochronological technique to quantify and predict future growth trend of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara), a tree of high commercial importance, and explored its spatial growth variability under two different climatic regimes from 17 deodar sites in the HKH. Of the two climate regimes, one is dominated by the monsoon rainfall and the other by the westerly disturbances. Analysis of tree ring width and climate (monthly temperature and precipitation) data reveals that the spring (March–May) temperature and precipitation affect the growth of deodar negatively and positively, respectively. We used …