A conservative expected travel time approach for traffic information dissemination under uncertainty

摘要: Travel time is important for both users and planners. Travel time variability widely exists in transportation systems. Positive skew with a long/fat upper tail is a basic characteristic of travel time variability, which poses great challenges to reporting travel time information to the public. There are two main approaches for disseminating travel time variability information: the traditional expected value and the percentile-based value. They are either unreliable when facing highly-skewed travel time variability, difficult to understand, or sensitive to individual risk preference. Motivated by this observation, this paper develops a conservative expected travel time (CET) approach to enhance the information reliability and maintain simplicity, which is formulated as a two-stage problem: (1) reshaping the travel time distribution, and (2) minimizing the expected value of the reshaped distribution. The features of the CET and the …