Vulnerability assessment of safeguarding a geological repository

摘要: In the last 15 years several IAEA working groups have developed safeguards approaches for the various stages and parts of geological repositories. In this paper we will limit our evaluation to the last stage of the life cycle of a geological repository, ie the operation and the final closure of the repository. We summarise the diversion scenarios for a geological repository and we propose a methodology to assess its vulnerability, depending on the safeguards measures undertaken. Vulnerability can be assessed for each scenario based on three criteria: detection probability, false alarm probability and delay time. Details and practical implications are discussed based on an illustrative example.