Novel genomic offset metrics integrate local adaptation into habitat suitability forecasts and inform assisted migration

摘要: Genomic data are increasingly being integrated into macroecological forecasting, offering an evolutionary perspective that has been largely missing from global change biogeography. Genomic offset, which quantifies the disruption of genotype–environment associations under environmental change, allows for the incorporation of intraspecific climate‐associated genomic differentiation into forecasts of habitat suitability. Gradient Forest (GF) is a commonly used approach to estimate genomic offset; however, major hurdles in the application of GF‐derived genomic offsets are (1) an inability to interpret their absolute magnitude in an ecologically meaningful way and (2) uncertainty in how their implications compare with those of species‐level approaches like Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). Here, we assess the climate change vulnerability of red spruce (Picea rubens), a cool‐temperate tree species endemic to …