TECHNEQUALITY Policy Brief No 7

摘要: Technological change (automation, robotisation, AI) challenges labour markets and is likely to reduce industrial employment (cf. Levels, Somers, & Fregin, 2020) whereas it at the same time increases economic growth and therewith income. Both the decline in employment and growth in income are not evenly spread across the skill and income distribution. Unskilled workers and people with low income, such as those on welfare, are expected to bear the larger burden. The expected rising inequalities with a view to access to employment and income requires an innovative policy response based on scientific knowledge on the effects of viable policy scenarios. In this policy brief we first discuss the lessons learned from a review of macro-economic simulation studies of alternative policy scenarios such as Unconditional Basic Income (UBI), Negative Income Tax and Participation Income (PI) in a variety of countries (Somers, Muffels & Kuenn-Nelen. 2022). Then, we report on a macroeconomic simulation study that is conducted on two alternative policy scenarios to deal with the rising inequalities. Two of such policy scenarios are now in debate in the Netherlands: a substantial (20 to 40%) rise of the minimum wage and a change in the welfare system in which more rewarding income incentives are built in by a more generous earnings disregard in the social welfare system. The latter scenario implies a reduction in the marginal tax rate for people on social assistance who start working or increase their working hours while being enrolled in welfare. The benefit withdrawal rate, that is actually reduced from 100% to50%, acts as a work bonus for people …