摘要: Determining expected lifetimes and accompaning survival distributions for housing components was the focus for a project undertaken for the Queensland Department of Housing. The objective was to enable the estimation of the probability of a dwelling survival based on the current condition of the property. Initially a parametric solution to this problem based on the age of the property was employed. However, while this was adequate for a selection of properties, due to the heterogeneous nature of the portfolio it was inaccurate for individual properties and a more refined solution was required. The data source for the project was information collected by property inspectors for the 55,000 dwelling stock currently managed by the Department. In all 632 fields of data were collected on each dwelling.This paper discusses the statistical analysis carried out to identify the survival distribution (s), both parametric and non …