摘要: The likelihood of failure for a dwelling was an essential element of a condition index developed for the Queensland Department of Housing (DOH) by CSIRO, QUT and DOH jointly. This paper describes the steps taken and method used to derive a suitable estimator for this element. In particular it focuses on the preliminary statistical analysis of a sample from the 55,000 dwelling and the findings of this analysis. The objectives of the analysis were to identify key characteristics of the housing stock and to extract a relationship between the dwelling age profile and projected maintenance requirements. The analysis revealed the single factor that has the greatest influence on the cost of repairs of a dwelling was the dwellings age and ascertained that the higher repair costs for older dwellings is due to the number of repairs needed which increases with age. From this analysis an appropriate survival distribution to predict …